Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$427.74
-$0.23
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $157.42 | $157.26 | -$0.16 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $120.64 | $120.58 | -$0.06 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.76 | $59.76 | +$0 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.84 | $39.84 | +$0 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.87 | -$0.01 | 11% 44-371 (415) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $20.42 | $20.42 | +$0 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
LucerysInvested
$157.42
Value
$157.26
PnL
-$0.16
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
balthazarInvested
$120.64
Value
$120.58
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$59.76
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
Invested
$39.84
Value
$39.84
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.01
Record
11%
44-371 (415)
Invested
$20.42
Value
$20.42
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.