Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 12?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 94¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 12

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$346.89

Combined PnL

-$3.44

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 93.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$330.43

Total Shares352

Combined PnL-$6.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$16.46

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$2.81

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 96.1¢	$151.77	$148.42	-$3.35	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$57.2	$56.4	-$0.8	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$57.79	$56.4	-$1.39	29% 862-2136 (2998)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$28.4	$28.05	-$0.35	40% 1429-2156 (3585)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94¢	$19.27	$19.27	+$0	20% 69-276 (345)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.72	$10.5	-$0.22	39% 303-465 (768)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$6.78	$9.27	+$2.49	29% 237-575 (812)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 94¢	$6.73	$6.69	-$0.04	39% 624-957 (1581)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$5.87	$5.39	-$0.48	69% 2062-948 (3010)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.7	-$0.1	38% 1236-1990 (3226)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1	$1.8	+$0.8	12% 17-121 (138)

Lucerys

Invested

$151.77

Value

$148.42

PnL

-$3.35

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$57.2

Value

$56.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$57.79

Value

$56.4

PnL

-$1.39

Record

29%

862-2136 (2998)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.4

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

40%

1429-2156 (3585)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.27

Value

$19.27

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

69-276 (345)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.72

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.22

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.78

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$2.49

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$0.04

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.87

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.48

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

1236-1990 (3226)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.