Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$80.35
-$2.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $32.6 | $31.8 | -$0.8 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $31.35 | $29.67 | -$1.68 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $10.8 | -$0.6 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $9.73 | $5.43 | +$1.1 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.65 | -$0.05 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$32.6
Value
$31.8
PnL
-$0.8
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.35
Value
$29.67
PnL
-$1.68
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$5.43
PnL
+$1.1
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.