Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 12?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 45¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 12

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$206.31

Combined PnL

$0.61

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 44.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$138.55

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$2.68

No3 traders

Total Value$67.76

Total Shares121

Combined PnL+$3.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$118.38	$115.7	-$2.67	59% 1019-705 (1724)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$32.2	$33.6	+$1.4	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$29.72	$31.36	+$1.64	35% 2910-5328 (8238)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.7¢	$19.36	$14.05	+$0.2	51% 263-254 (517)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$9	$8.8	-$0.2	17% 12-60 (72)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.8	+$0.25	38% 1192-1980 (3172)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.38

Value

$115.7

PnL

-$2.67

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.2

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$1.4

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$29.72

Value

$31.36

PnL

+$1.64

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.36

Value

$14.05

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

263-254 (517)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

38%

1192-1980 (3172)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.