Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on November 12?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 98¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$339.9

Combined PnL

$3.23

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 97.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$339.5

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$3.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.39

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.23

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 97.2¢	$153.49	$154.73	+$1.24	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96¢	$57.62	$58.8	+$1.18	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96¢	$28.8	$29.4	+$0.6	40% 1429-2156 (3585)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.36	$29.4	+$0.04	11% 44-371 (415)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.27	-$0.13	25% 839-2481 (3320)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96¢	$19.68	$20.09	+$0.41	11% 42-326 (368)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98¢	$7.02	$6.98	-$0.03	45% 273-328 (601)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$5.87	$5.93	+$0.05	44% 286-362 (648)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.9	+$0.1	38% 1236-1990 (3226)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$0.63	$0.39	-$0.23	54% 383-321 (704)

Lucerys

Invested

$153.49

Value

$154.73

PnL

+$1.24

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$57.62

Value

$58.8

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

40%

1429-2156 (3585)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.36

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$0.04

Record

11%

44-371 (415)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.27

PnL

-$0.13

Record

25%

839-2481 (3320)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$0.41

Record

11%

42-326 (368)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.87

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1236-1990 (3226)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.