Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $350 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$349.86
$0.56
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $131.58 | $131.77 | +$0.19 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $80.43 | $80.59 | +$0.16 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.82 | $59.94 | +$0.12 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $50.39 | $50.42 | +$0.04 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.98 | +$0.06 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.15 | $7.15 | -$0 | 39% 303-465 (768) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
LucerysInvested
$131.58
Value
$131.77
PnL
+$0.19
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
balthazar<$100Invested
$80.43
Value
$80.59
PnL
+$0.16
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$59.82
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0.12
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
Invested
$50.39
Value
$50.42
PnL
+$0.04
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$7.15
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
303-465 (768)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.