Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $10 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$9.77
-$85.98
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $26.64 | $2.78 | -$23.85 | 53% 459-411 (870) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $57.08 | $2.59 | -$24.86 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $17.24 | $1.89 | -$15.35 | 18% 74-331 (405) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $16.43 | $1.72 | -$14.71 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.91 | $0.62 | -$5.29 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.18 | $0.12 | -$1.06 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.05 | -$0.86 | 40% 1374-2022 (3396) |
Invested
$26.64
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$23.85
Record
53%
459-411 (870)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$57.08
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$24.86
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$17.24
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$15.35
Record
18%
74-331 (405)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.43
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$14.71
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$5.29
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.06
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.86
Record
40%
1374-2022 (3396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.