Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$174.89
-$0.05
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $88.48 | $88.44 | -$0.04 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 18% 60-275 (335) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 8% 32-370 (402) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.48 | $20.48 | -$0 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.04 | $6.04 | -$0.01 | 39% 264-420 (684) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$88.48
Value
$88.44
PnL
-$0.04
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
18%
60-275 (335)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
8%
32-370 (402)
Invested
$20.48
Value
$20.48
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
Invested
$6.04
Value
$6.04
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
264-420 (684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.