Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 11?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$101.88
-$6.85
65.1¢ → 64¢
-2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $45.9 | $42.7 | -$3.2 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $27.69 | $23.85 | -$3.84 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $13.32 | $13.36 | +$0.04 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $9.81 | $9.76 | -$0.05 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $3.05 | +$0.25 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.05 | -$0.3 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $3.05 | +$0.2 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $3.05 | +$0.05 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$45.9
Value
$42.7
PnL
-$3.2
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$27.69
Value
$23.85
PnL
-$3.84
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.32
Value
$13.36
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$0.05
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.25
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.3
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.2
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.