Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 10?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 82¢ · $346 held · ends Nov 10

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$345.67

Combined PnL

$10.1

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 81.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$153.78

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$4.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.11

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$5.52

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$183.05	$173.78	-$9.27	21% 132-485 (617)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.9¢	$134.79	$128.02	-$6.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.4¢	$48.26	$45.76	-$2.5
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77¢	$61.01	$62.63	+$1.62	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$38.91	$41.58	+$2.67	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$20.48	$18.67	-$1.81	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$8.96	$10.59	+$1.63	2% 12-662 (674)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$8.54	$8.97	+$0.43	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.98	$7.48	+$0.51	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.91	$7.41	+$0.5	28% 153-400 (553)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$11.84	$4.93	+$3.19	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.41	$3.71	+$0.3	31% 163-361 (524)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 66¢	$2.97	$3.33	+$0.36	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.9	$2.6	+$0.7	67% 3785-1901 (5686)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$183.05

Value

$173.78

PnL

-$9.27

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

No$134.7977.9¢-$6.77

Yes$48.2627.4¢-$2.5

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$61.01

Value

$62.63

PnL

+$1.62

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$38.91

Value

$41.58

PnL

+$2.67

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.48

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$1.81

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$1.63

Record

12-662 (674)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0.43

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.98

Value

$7.48

PnL

+$0.51

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$0.5

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.84

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$3.19

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.3

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.36

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.7

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.