Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 31?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 73¢ · $320 held · ended Oct 31

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$319.65

Combined PnL

$15.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$144.6

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$2.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$93.13

Total Shares348

Combined PnL+$17.91

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 85.8¢	$147.17	$144.6	-$2.57	55% 417-345 (762)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$82.71	$81.92	-$0.07	20% 318-1310 (1628)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$60.15	$59.8	-$0.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.6¢	$21.81	$22.12	+$0.28
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$45.2	$62.73	+$17.53	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$63.75	$30.4	+$0.38	42% 1717-2340 (4057)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$147.17

Value

$144.6

PnL

-$2.57

Record

55%

417-345 (762)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$82.71

Value

$81.92

PnL

-$0.07

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.2

Value

$62.73

PnL

+$17.53

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.75

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

1717-2340 (4057)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.