Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 29?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$234.35
$1.4
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $232.2 | $220 | -$11.82 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.9¢ | $195.58 | $174.9 | -$20.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.5¢ | $36.2 | $45.1 | +$8.9 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $10.5 | $14.35 | +$1.4 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.