Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 28?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $871 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$870.69
-$5.69
54.8¢ → 52.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $549.96 | $591.11 | +$51.25 | 46% 567-659 (1226) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.7¢ | $260.85 | $319.79 | +$69.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.9¢ | $289.11 | $271.32 | -$17.79 | |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $168.07 | $168.18 | +$0.11 | 50% 1636-1625 (3261) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 62.3¢ | $133.09 | $94.63 | -$7.22 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $12.1 | +$1.3 | 61% 1552-1005 (2557) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $4.54 | $4.66 | +$0.12 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
Invested
$549.96
Value
$591.11
PnL
+$51.25
Record
46%
567-659 (1226)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.07
Value
$168.18
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
1636-1625 (3261)
IstarothInvested
$133.09
Value
$94.63
PnL
-$7.22
Record
29%
279-667 (946)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$1.3
Record
61%
1552-1005 (2557)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$4.66
PnL
+$0.12
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.