Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $807 held · ended Oct 27

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$807.42

Combined PnL

$107.84

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 97.6¢

+80% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$717.76

Total Shares1,125

Combined PnL+$107.36

No1 trader

Total Value$1.56

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$0.47

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 50.7¢	$365.52	$450.56	+$85.04	51% 571-540 (1111)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 58.3¢	$149.67	$164.33	+$15.95	55% 233-192 (425)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 59.7¢	$93.48	$88.1	-$4.32	30% 277-642 (919)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.7¢	$54.78	$58.73	+$3.97
└ No leg	Noavg 41¢	$37.65	$29.36	-$8.29
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 58.8¢	$71.58	$77.12	+$5.55	61% 1550-997 (2547)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 95.4¢	$53.93	$25.75	+$0.83	53% 6266-5497 (11763)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$1.08	$1.56	+$0.47	57% 12943-9852 (22795)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$365.52

Value

$450.56

PnL

+$85.04

Record

51%

571-540 (1111)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$149.67

Value

$164.33

PnL

+$15.95

Record

55%

233-192 (425)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.48

Value

$88.1

PnL

-$4.32

Record

30%

277-642 (919)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.58

Value

$77.12

PnL

+$5.55

Record

61%

1550-997 (2547)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.93

Value

$25.75

PnL

+$0.83

Record

53%

6266-5497 (11763)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.47

Record

57%

12943-9852 (22795)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.