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NoYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
Lucerys<$100NoYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on November 8?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 50%
Total Value
$31.85
Combined PnL
-$64.53
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$31.85
Total Shares32
Combined PnL+$0.1
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares711
Combined PnL-$64.62
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 17.7¢ | $10.04 | $31.85 | +$0.1 | 46% 6644-7782 (14426) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $22.07 | — | -$64.62 | 21% 938-3538 (4476) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35477-83899 (119376) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18663-24360 (43023) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 35% 1161-2125 (3286) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2947-6822 (9769) |
0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100Invested
$10.04
Value
$31.85
PnL
+$0.1
Record
46%
6644-7782 (14426)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
$22.07
Value
—
PnL
-$64.62
Record
21%
938-3538 (4476)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35477-83899 (119376)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18663-24360 (43023)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1161-2125 (3286)
12
123987456CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2947-6822 (9769)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd67e424c...fe2b94
Slug
highest-temperature-in-los-angeles-on-november-8-2026-80-81f