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NoYesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on November 8?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 75%
Total Value
$94.4
Combined PnL
-$67.25
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$94.4
Total Shares94
Combined PnL+$0.09
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares741
Combined PnL-$67.35
No — 14%Yes — 86%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $94.31 | $94.4 | +$0.09 | 97% 59739-1869 (61608) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $22.07 | — | -$64.62 | 21% 938-3538 (4476) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.27 | — | -$2.27 | 46% 6644-7782 (14426) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.45 | 35% 1161-2125 (3286) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35477-83899 (119376) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18663-24360 (43023) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2947-6822 (9769) |
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$94.31
Value
$94.4
PnL
+$0.09
Record
97%
59739-1869 (61608)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
$22.07
Value
—
PnL
-$64.62
Record
21%
938-3538 (4476)
0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100Invested
$2.27
Value
—
PnL
-$2.27
Record
46%
6644-7782 (14426)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
1161-2125 (3286)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35477-83899 (119376)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18663-24360 (43023)
12
123987456CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2947-6822 (9769)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf284ca9c...e22972
Slug
highest-temperature-in-los-angeles-on-november-8-2026-75forbelow