Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on November 4?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 14¢ · $62 held · ended Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$62.08

Combined PnL

$0.64

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$39.49

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$17.02

No2 traders

Total Value$22.42

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$16.39

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$17.76	$34.39	+$16.62	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$90.46	$15.98	-$14.56	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$23.06	$6.43	-$1.83	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$4.71	$5.11	+$0.4	47% 2130-2428 (4558)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.76

Value

$34.39

PnL

+$16.62

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$90.46

Value

$15.98

PnL

-$14.56

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.06

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$1.83

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.8%

14.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$531.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

631.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.