Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$107.06

Combined PnL

-$15.4

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$104.55

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$0.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.51

Total Shares193

Combined PnL-$15.02

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.78	$39.48	-$0.3	34% 303-590 (893)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.89	$19.75	-$0.14	34% 329-653 (982)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99¢	$17.03	$16.98	-$0.05	38% 306-501 (807)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$9.83	$9.87	+$0.04	33% 80-164 (244)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$7.46	$7.49	+$0.03	36% 286-506 (792)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$5.95	$5.97	+$0.02	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.99	$5.01	+$0.02	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.98	$1.86	-$11.13	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.65	-$3.9	53% 2324-2038 (4362)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.78

Value

$39.48

PnL

-$0.3

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.89

Value

$19.75

PnL

-$0.14

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$17.03

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

306-501 (807)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.04

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$7.46

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.03

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$11.13

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$3.9

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.