Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 90¢ · $553 held · ends Nov 15

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$553.45

Combined PnL

$16.02

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 89.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$536.2

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$18.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.25

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$2.27

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 86¢	$498.12	$515.31	+$17.19	62% 1133-696 (1829)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.98	$11.43	-$1.56	55% 1214-1001 (2215)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 89¢	$7.12	$7.12	+$0	29% 63-155 (218)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$4.95	$5.38	+$0.44	58% 725-518 (1243)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.27	$4.52	+$0.25	51% 771-729 (1500)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$4	-$0.55	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$12	$3.86	+$0.4	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.32	$1.16	-$0.17	40% 657-989 (1646)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.67	$0.67	+$0	14% 82-514 (596)

vibing123

Invested

$498.12

Value

$515.31

PnL

+$17.19

Record

62%

1133-696 (1829)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$11.43

PnL

-$1.56

Record

55%

1214-1001 (2215)

123987456<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.44

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

771-729 (1500)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

PnL

-$0.55

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.17

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.