Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 30¢ · $480 held · ends Nov 15

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$479.83

Combined PnL

-$167.02

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 29.5¢

-48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$339.36

Total Shares1,131

Combined PnL-$285.89

Yes3 traders

Total Value$140.46

Total Shares203

Combined PnL+$118.88

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$487.89	$249	-$238.89	62% 1138-702 (1840)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.98	$98.55	+$85.56	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 55.5¢	$147.96	$74.82	-$66.43	31% 208-460 (668)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$34.5	+$29.95	54% 2309-1989 (4298)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$8.78	$7.97	-$0.81	41% 714-1032 (1746)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$12.25	$7.42	+$3.36	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$19.95	$3.05	+$21.4	28% 3219-8167 (11386)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$3.5	$3	-$0.5	31% 1062-2414 (3476)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.18	$1.52	-$0.66	52% 818-756 (1574)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$487.89

Value

$249

PnL

-$238.89

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$98.55

PnL

+$85.56

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$147.96

Value

$74.82

PnL

-$66.43

Record

31%

208-460 (668)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$29.95

Record

54%

2309-1989 (4298)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$8.78

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$0.81

Record

41%

714-1032 (1746)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.25

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$3.36

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$19.95

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$21.4

Record

28%

3219-8167 (11386)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

31%

1062-2414 (3476)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.18

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.66

Record

52%

818-756 (1574)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.