Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 84¢ · $968 held · ends Nov 15

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$968.1

Combined PnL

-$59.35

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 83.5¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$715.38

Total Shares872

Combined PnL+$177.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$252.23

Total Shares1,261

Combined PnL-$236.42

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 68.3¢	$639.37	$423.72	+$118.87	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$485.22	$248.8	-$236.42	62% 1138-702 (1840)
HE hello.67	Noavg 73.9¢	$256.72	$243.74	+$31.58	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 60.1¢	$102.97	$18.36	+$25	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 75¢	$8.35	$9.13	+$0.78	61% 773-494 (1267)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8	$8.2	+$0.2	35% 290-535 (825)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 75¢	$5.69	$6.22	+$0.53	30% 253-582 (835)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.9	$6.01	+$0.11	31% 1057-2405 (3462)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.44	$3.44	+$0	14% 90-553 (643)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$639.37

Value

$423.72

PnL

+$118.87

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$485.22

Value

$248.8

PnL

-$236.42

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

hello.67

Invested

$256.72

Value

$243.74

PnL

+$31.58

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

ghorrock

Invested

$102.97

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.78

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$6.22

PnL

+$0.53

Record

30%

253-582 (835)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.11

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

90-553 (643)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.