Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $417 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$416.68

Combined PnL

-$28.58

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 95.9¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$407.65

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$0.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.03

Total Shares393

Combined PnL-$28.88

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.2¢	$237.99	$238.92	+$0.94	42% 783-1092 (1875)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97¢	$63.59	$63.19	-$0.27	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$53.98	$53.48	-$0.5	34% 347-663 (1010)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$15.83	$15.74	-$0.09	52% 900-835 (1735)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$11.53	$11.91	+$0.39	71% 939-382 (1321)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.76	-$0.14	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.76	-$0.04	35% 325-598 (923)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$37.91	$9.03	-$28.88	61% 1190-746 (1936)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$4.87	$4.88	+$0.01	33% 81-164 (245)

241532532432

Invested

$237.99

Value

$238.92

PnL

+$0.94

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.59

Value

$63.19

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$53.98

Value

$53.48

PnL

-$0.5

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.83

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.53

Value

$11.91

PnL

+$0.39

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$0.14

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.91

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$28.88

Record

61%

1190-746 (1936)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

81-164 (245)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.