Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$4.52

Combined PnL

-$36.92

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.34

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.18

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$36.92

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.34	$4.34	+$0	30% 1153-2701 (3854)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.98	$0.07	-$12.91	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.36	$0.04	-$6.33	28% 3267-8302 (11569)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.03	-$4.52	36% 286-506 (792)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.03	-$4.52	53% 2329-2055 (4384)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$39.05	$0.01	-$5.8	35% 3865-7145 (11010)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.56	$0.01	-$1.55	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1	$0.01	-$0.99	57% 812-615 (1427)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.3	$0	-$0.29	42% 1671-2307 (3978)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1153-2701 (3854)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.91

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.36

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.33

Record

28%

3267-8302 (11569)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.52

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.52

Record

53%

2329-2055 (4384)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.8

Record

35%

3865-7145 (11010)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.55

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.99

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

PnL

-$0.29

Record

42%

1671-2307 (3978)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.