Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$124.83

Combined PnL

-$75.47

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$124.56

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares544

Combined PnL-$75.53

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.96	+$0.04	28% 1018-2625 (3643)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.57	$49.6	+$0.02	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.25	$0.08	-$14.17	34% 244-467 (711)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.68	$0.05	-$8.64	31% 161-352 (513)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.81	$0.04	-$7.76	26% 548-1577 (2125)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$157.2	$0.03	-$28.91	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.88	49% 753-797 (1550)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.52	$0.02	-$4.49	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.01	-$2.71	29% 3178-7933 (11111)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.03	$0.01	-$2.98	37% 1527-2596 (4123)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

28%

1018-2625 (3643)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$49.57

Value

$49.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.25

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.17

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.68

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.64

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.76

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$28.91

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.49

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.71

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.98

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.