Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $315 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$314.6

Combined PnL

-$7.08

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.9¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$313.33

Total Shares315

Combined PnL+$2.39

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.08

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$9.47

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.6¢	$152.45	$153.85	+$1.39	34% 229-452 (681)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$72.49	$74.62	+$2.13	30% 240-572 (812)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$59.43	$54.42	-$0.19	42% 1625-2287 (3912)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$19.9	+$0.1	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$7.91	-$1.06	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$2.61	$2.63	+$0.01	51% 769-727 (1496)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.68	$0.83	-$7.59	31% 161-352 (513)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.97	$0.12	-$1.85	34% 244-467 (711)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.09	$0.08	-$0.01	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.07	$0.05	-$0.01	63% 736-439 (1175)

quietparcel

Invested

$152.45

Value

$153.85

PnL

+$1.39

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$72.49

Value

$74.62

PnL

+$2.13

Record

30%

240-572 (812)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$59.43

Value

$54.42

PnL

-$0.19

Record

42%

1625-2287 (3912)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.68

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$7.59

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.85

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.