Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on November 14?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 70¢ · $720 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$720.28
$26.84
71.9¢ → 69.5¢
-3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $493.14 | $460.92 | -$32.22 | 62% 1125-676 (1801) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $50.25 | $54.75 | +$4.5 | 30% 993-2362 (3355) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $48.92 | $48.19 | -$0.73 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $33.63 | $36.22 | +$2.59 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $34.94 | $35.15 | +$0.22 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 67¢ | $169.38 | $27.2 | +$48.86 | 36% 3652-6517 (10169) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $25.1 | $20.15 | +$1.22 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $17.46 | $17.34 | -$0.12 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $7.31 | $7.42 | +$0.11 | 26% 544-1530 (2074) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $6.8 | +$0 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $7.59 | $6.14 | +$2.42 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
Invested
$493.14
Value
$460.92
PnL
-$32.22
Record
62%
1125-676 (1801)
Invested
$50.25
Value
$54.75
PnL
+$4.5
Record
30%
993-2362 (3355)
Invested
$48.92
Value
$48.19
PnL
-$0.73
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$33.63
Value
$36.22
PnL
+$2.59
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
Invested
$34.94
Value
$35.15
PnL
+$0.22
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
LucerysInvested
$169.38
Value
$27.2
PnL
+$48.86
Record
36%
3652-6517 (10169)
Invested
$25.1
Value
$20.15
PnL
+$1.22
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$17.46
Value
$17.34
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$7.42
PnL
+$0.11
Record
26%
544-1530 (2074)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$7.59
Value
$6.14
PnL
+$2.42
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.