Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on November 14?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 59¢ · $714 held · ends Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$713.52

Combined PnL

$70.62

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 58.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$470.14

Total Shares796

Combined PnL+$48.57

No7 traders

Total Value$243.35

Total Shares547

Combined PnL+$22.06

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 59.6¢	$239	$234.45	-$4.55	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 45.8¢	$175.89	$228.99	+$53.1	56% 1200-949 (2149)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 40.4¢	$154.78	$84.12	+$11.76	31% 114-255 (369)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 43.3¢	$138.4	$56.03	-$3.37	39% 579-908 (1487)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$36.7	$34.8	-$1.9	62% 1125-676 (1801)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$36.19	$30	-$6.19	31% 225-501 (726)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$24.31	$19.85	-$4.47	27% 200-540 (740)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$44.28	$16.6	+$27.61	36% 3652-6517 (10169)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 59.4¢	$6.68	$6.7	+$0.02	73% 795-298 (1093)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.1	$1.96	-$1.39	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$239

Value

$234.45

PnL

-$4.55

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$175.89

Value

$228.99

PnL

+$53.1

Record

56%

1200-949 (2149)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$154.78

Value

$84.12

PnL

+$11.76

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$138.4

Value

$56.03

PnL

-$3.37

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

vibing123CTR<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$1.9

Record

62%

1125-676 (1801)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$36.19

Value

$30

PnL

-$6.19

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$24.31

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$4.47

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$44.28

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$27.61

Record

36%

3652-6517 (10169)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.68

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.02

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$1.39

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.