Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 14¢ · $648 held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

Total Value

$647.91

Combined PnL

-$8.13

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$461.72

Total Shares3,298

Combined PnL-$16.82

No8 traders

Total Value$185.93

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$8.69

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$478.54	$461.72	-$16.82	62% 1127-679 (1806)
Haradwaith	Noavg 84¢	$197.78	$72.01	+$10.68	31% 146-327 (473)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$24.38	$24.42	+$0.04	72% 829-328 (1157)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$35.55	$23.8	+$0.16	40% 625-948 (1573)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.7	$20.99	-$0.89	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$65.88	$20.93	-$0.56	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.4	$17	-$0.4	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.83	$4.51	-$0.32	33% 220-451 (671)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 87¢	$2.3	$2.27	-$0.03	63% 716-429 (1145)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$478.54

Value

$461.72

PnL

-$16.82

Record

62%

1127-679 (1806)

Haradwaith

Invested

$197.78

Value

$72.01

PnL

+$10.68

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$24.38

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$0.04

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$35.55

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$0.16

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$20.99

PnL

-$0.89

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$65.88

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$0.32

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.03

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.