Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on November 14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$115.23
-$57.23
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.96 | +$0.04 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.98 | +$0.02 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $17.76 | $0.1 | -$17.66 | 34% 231-458 (689) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $84.74 | $0.09 | -$22.82 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.81 | $0.04 | -$7.77 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.52 | $0.02 | -$4.49 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.02 | -$2.71 | 29% 3158-7813 (10971) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.35 | $0.01 | -$1.35 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.48 | $0 | -$0.48 | 42% 1621-2282 (3903) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$17.66
Record
34%
231-458 (689)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$84.74
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$22.82
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$7.81
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$7.77
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.52
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.49
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.71
Record
29%
3158-7813 (10971)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.35
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.48
Record
42%
1621-2282 (3903)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.