Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on November 13?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $592 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$591.89
-$40.83
97.8¢ → 99.7¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $281.92 | $290.22 | +$8.3 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.8¢ | $124.71 | $124.75 | +$0.04 | 31% 190-428 (618) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $84.64 | $78.44 | +$3.07 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.94 | +$0.06 | 29% 1063-2631 (3694) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.36 | $29.94 | +$0.58 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.94 | +$0.09 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
VI vibing123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $28.49 | $4.64 | -$23.86 | 62% 1125-676 (1801) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $2.5 | $2.51 | +$0.01 | 99% 1095-12 (1107) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $26.2 | $1.3 | -$24.91 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.66 | $0.13 | -$2.53 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.78 | $0.09 | -$1.69 | 45% 4975-6198 (11173) |
Invested
$281.92
Value
$290.22
PnL
+$8.3
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$124.71
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$0.04
Record
31%
190-428 (618)
Invested
$84.64
Value
$78.44
PnL
+$3.07
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
29%
1063-2631 (3694)
Invested
$29.36
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.58
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.09
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$28.49
Value
$4.64
PnL
-$23.86
Record
62%
1125-676 (1801)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
1095-12 (1107)
Invested
$26.2
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$24.91
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$2.53
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.69
Record
45%
4975-6198 (11173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.