Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on November 13?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $519 held · ended Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$519.33

Combined PnL

-$362.01

Smart Money Entry

17.6¢ → 1.8¢

-90% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$429.83

Total Shares438

Combined PnL+$62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$89.1

Total Shares2,921

Combined PnL-$424.01

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.6¢	$306.34	$311.93	+$5.59	39% 579-908 (1487)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$484.26	$79.42	-$404.84	62% 1125-676 (1801)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 81.5¢	$324.49	$45.45	+$34.08	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$38.96	$39.36	+$0.4	29% 60-149 (209)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 78¢	$167.74	$29.22	+$21.73	27% 200-540 (740)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.2	$8.79	-$17.41	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$3.66	$3.87	+$0.21	73% 795-298 (1093)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.66	$0.89	-$1.77	31% 114-255 (369)

241532532432

Invested

$306.34

Value

$311.93

PnL

+$5.59

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$484.26

Value

$79.42

PnL

-$404.84

Record

62%

1125-676 (1801)

ghorrock

Invested

$324.49

Value

$45.45

PnL

+$34.08

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

123987456<$100

Invested

$38.96

Value

$39.36

PnL

+$0.4

Record

29%

60-149 (209)

smallreceipt

Invested

$167.74

Value

$29.22

PnL

+$21.73

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.2

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$17.41

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0.21

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$1.77

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3305.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

3405.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.