Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on November 13?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$195.56

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 58.5¢

+32% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,489

Combined PnL+$392.23

No6 traders

Total Value$422.2

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$196.67

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 44.4¢	$805.12	$1.1K	+$291.39	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 73.7¢	$494.38	$322.08	-$172.3	62% 1124-676 (1800)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 47.8¢	$200.06	$245.32	+$48.58	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 39.6¢	$98.25	$136.53	+$38.28	56% 1073-841 (1914)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$79.03	$79.3	+$0.27	73% 778-291 (1069)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.1¢	$43.74	$41.07	-$2.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.8¢	$35.29	$38.23	+$2.94
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$73.75	$60	-$13.75	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$13.73	$18.26	+$13.98	30% 108-251 (359)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$14.7	$14.4	-$0.3	27% 973-2599 (3572)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$20.71	$14.4	-$6.31	31% 221-498 (719)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$43.03	$8.92	-$3.96	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.4	-$0.05	65% 4251-2269 (6520)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$805.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$291.39

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$494.38

Value

$322.08

PnL

-$172.3

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$200.06

Value

$245.32

PnL

+$48.58

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$98.25

Value

$136.53

PnL

+$38.28

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$79.03

Value

$79.3

PnL

+$0.27

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Both legs:

No$43.7451.1¢-$2.67

Yes$35.2950.8¢+$2.94

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$73.75

Value

$60

PnL

-$13.75

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.73

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$13.98

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$20.71

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$6.31

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$43.03

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$3.96

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.