Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on November 13?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 68¢ · $507 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$506.79
-$62.65
91.9¢ → 68¢
-26% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $214.07 | $175.56 | -$38.51 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $148.48 | $119.35 | -$29.13 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $181.16 | $63.62 | -$11.49 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $80.67 | $44.96 | -$6.48 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $422.53 | $28.53 | +$34.63 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $23.1 | -$6 | 29% 185-443 (628) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $27.6 | $23.1 | -$4.5 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $55.87 | $15.96 | +$0.03 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $13.8 | $12.6 | -$1.2 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
Invested
$214.07
Value
$175.56
PnL
-$38.51
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$148.48
Value
$119.35
PnL
-$29.13
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
Invested
$181.16
Value
$63.62
PnL
-$11.49
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$80.67
Value
$44.96
PnL
-$6.48
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$422.53
Value
$28.53
PnL
+$34.63
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$23.1
PnL
-$6
Record
29%
185-443 (628)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$23.1
PnL
-$4.5
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$55.87
Value
$15.96
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$1.2
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.