Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on November 13?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 98¢ · $696 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$695.61
$0.39
97.5¢ → 98.4¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $328.66 | $336.79 | +$8.13 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 98.6¢ | $123.26 | $124.63 | +$1.36 | 29% 1063-2631 (3694) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 95.6¢ | $139.35 | $102.84 | +$4.52 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.91 | +$0.24 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.91 | +$0.51 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.91 | +$0.21 | 30% 993-2362 (3355) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $22.42 | $22.44 | +$0.03 | 99% 1095-12 (1107) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $26.2 | $11.17 | -$15.03 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $7.33 | $7.77 | +$0.44 | 73% 795-298 (1093) |
Invested
$328.66
Value
$336.79
PnL
+$8.13
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$123.26
Value
$124.63
PnL
+$1.36
Record
29%
1063-2631 (3694)
Invested
$139.35
Value
$102.84
PnL
+$4.52
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.24
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.51
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.21
Record
30%
993-2362 (3355)
Invested
$22.42
Value
$22.44
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
1095-12 (1107)
Invested
$26.2
Value
$11.17
PnL
-$15.03
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
Invested
$7.33
Value
$7.77
PnL
+$0.44
Record
73%
795-298 (1093)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.