Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on November 12?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $51 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$51.23

Combined PnL

-$7.62

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$49.99

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$7.65

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.12	$14.11	-$0.01	40% 1475-2199 (3674)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.71	$10.73	+$0.02	27% 949-2550 (3499)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.97	$8.96	-$0.01	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$7.01	$7.05	+$0.04	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0	47% 544-625 (1169)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 675-8 (683)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$1.49	$1.48	-$0	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8	$0.35	-$7.65	58% 1038-744 (1782)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.08	+$0	58% 481-347 (828)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

1475-2199 (3674)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$10.71

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$7.65

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.