Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $113 held · ended Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$113.03

Combined PnL

-$6.02

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 97.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$110.1

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.75

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$5.76

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$42.39	$42.5	+$0.1	35% 414-754 (1168)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$24.51	$24.26	-$0.25	29% 892-2183 (3075)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$21.18	$21.2	+$0.01	53% 925-815 (1740)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$8.84	$8.77	-$0.07	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$6.93	$6.89	-$0.04	42% 838-1166 (2004)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$6.51	$6.49	-$0.02	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8	$2.23	-$5.77	58% 1038-744 (1782)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.51	$0.52	+$0	48% 510-557 (1067)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$42.39

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$24.26

PnL

-$0.25

Record

29%

892-2183 (3075)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.18

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$5.77

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.