Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $46 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$46.46
-$2.51
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $13.02 | $13.02 | -$0 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $14.28 | $11.69 | -$2.59 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $17.17 | $8.55 | +$0.31 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.06 | $5.12 | +$0.06 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.6 | +$0 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $3.77 | $3.48 | -$0.29 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
Invested
$13.02
Value
$13.02
PnL
-$0
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$11.69
PnL
-$2.59
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Invested
$17.17
Value
$8.55
PnL
+$0.31
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.06
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$0.29
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.