Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on November 12?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 50¢ · $270 held · ends Nov 12

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$269.84

Combined PnL

-$4.99

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 49.5¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$172.94

Total Shares333

Combined PnL-$9.09

Yes4 traders

Total Value$96.9

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$4.11

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 55.3¢	$173.27	$162.98	-$10.28	59% 1029-712 (1741)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$60	$63.13	+$3.13	34% 356-690 (1046)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$14.7	$15.15	+$0.45	68% 2107-991 (3098)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$12.84	$13.14	+$0.3	77% 618-184 (802)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$6.37	$7.36	+$0.99	26% 864-2483 (3347)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 47.1¢	$10.06	$5.49	+$0.24	55% 683-554 (1237)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.6	+$0.2	38% 3372-5405 (8777)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$173.27

Value

$162.98

PnL

-$10.28

Record

59%

1029-712 (1741)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$63.13

PnL

+$3.13

Record

34%

356-690 (1046)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

68%

2107-991 (3098)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.84

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$0.3

Record

77%

618-184 (802)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$0.99

Record

26%

864-2483 (3347)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.06

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.24

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

3372-5405 (8777)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.