Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $389 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$388.67
$31.89
65.3¢ → 70¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 65¢ | $245.69 | $275.93 | +$30.24 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $73.2 | $69.38 | -$3.83 | 9% 68-724 (792) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $23.52 | $23.45 | -$0.07 | 77% 632-192 (824) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.1¢ | $18.82 | $12.05 | +$1.27 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $16.44 | $7.86 | +$4.28 | 26% 866-2483 (3349) |
Invested
$245.69
Value
$275.93
PnL
+$30.24
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$73.2
Value
$69.38
PnL
-$3.83
Record
9%
68-724 (792)
Invested
$23.52
Value
$23.45
PnL
-$0.07
Record
77%
632-192 (824)
Invested
$18.82
Value
$12.05
PnL
+$1.27
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$16.44
Value
$7.86
PnL
+$4.28
Record
26%
866-2483 (3349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.