Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on November 12?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 98¢ · $49 held · ended Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$49.2

Combined PnL

-$9.14

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$48.05

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$2.29

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.14

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$6.86

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$10.54	$10.51	-$0.03	19% 114-491 (605)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$11.9	$9.93	-$1.85	54% 997-856 (1853)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$8.91	$8.79	-$0.12	53% 6205-5498 (11703)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.12	$5.05	-$0.07	61% 527-335 (862)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.05	$4.96	-$0.09	61% 521-333 (854)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.89	-$0.08	46% 133-155 (288)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99¢	$2.5	$2.47	-$0.03	99% 783-8 (791)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.47	$1.46	-$0.02	43% 894-1202 (2096)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8	$1.14	-$6.86	58% 1045-765 (1810)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

19%

114-491 (605)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$1.85

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

6205-5498 (11703)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

527-335 (862)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.09

Record

61%

521-333 (854)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

133-155 (288)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

99%

783-8 (791)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

894-1202 (2096)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$6.86

Record

58%

1045-765 (1810)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.