Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $103 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$102.87
-$1.28
98.7¢ → 95.8¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $47.44 | $46.81 | -$0.63 | 31% 2801-6226 (9027) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $27.39 | $26.97 | -$0.41 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $14.39 | $13.61 | -$0.09 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $8.08 | $7.97 | -$0.11 | 79% 428-113 (541) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $5.04 | $5.04 | +$0 | 44% 421-533 (954) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $2.5 | $2.46 | -$0.04 | 99% 335-2 (337) |
Invested
$47.44
Value
$46.81
PnL
-$0.63
Record
31%
2801-6226 (9027)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$27.39
Value
$26.97
PnL
-$0.41
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$14.39
Value
$13.61
PnL
-$0.09
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$8.08
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$0.11
Record
79%
428-113 (541)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
421-533 (954)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.04
Record
99%
335-2 (337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.