Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$100.59
$5.27
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $43.54 | $43.84 | +$0.31 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $23.41 | $25.26 | +$1.86 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $17.39 | $11.98 | +$0.58 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $6.38 | $8.41 | +$2.03 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $7.34 | $7.47 | +$0.12 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $3.25 | $3.62 | +$0.37 | 68% 2062-950 (3012) |
Invested
$43.54
Value
$43.84
PnL
+$0.31
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.41
Value
$25.26
PnL
+$1.86
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$11.98
PnL
+$0.58
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$6.38
Value
$8.41
PnL
+$2.03
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$7.47
PnL
+$0.12
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$0.37
Record
68%
2062-950 (3012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.