Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 54¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$306.89
-$0.04
51.8¢ → 54¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $256.52 | $256.52 | +$0 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 48.8¢ | $23.36 | $24.78 | +$1.42 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $16.07 | $14.28 | -$1.78 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $4.58 | $4.65 | +$0.07 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $3.92 | $4.17 | +$0.26 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.49 | $2.49 | +$0 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
Invested
$256.52
Value
$256.52
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$23.36
Value
$24.78
PnL
+$1.42
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.07
Value
$14.28
PnL
-$1.78
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$4.58
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.07
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$3.92
Value
$4.17
PnL
+$0.26
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$2.49
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.