Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on November 10?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $48 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$48.14

Combined PnL

-$1.54

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$43.72

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$0.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.42

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$1.92

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$29.84	$28.51	-$1.33	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75¢	$9	$10.74	+$1.74	88% 434-59 (493)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.48	-$0.03	35% 2882-5322 (8204)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$5.43	$3.47	-$1.96	23% 149-503 (652)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.91	$0.96	+$0.05	52% 244-227 (471)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.84

Value

$28.51

PnL

-$1.33

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

Value

$10.74

PnL

+$1.74

Record

88%

434-59 (493)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

2882-5322 (8204)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.43

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$1.96

Record

23%

149-503 (652)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.