Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$56.06
76.9¢ → 89¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 76¢ | $704.68 | $849.36 | +$144.68 | 20% 312-1272 (1584) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $168.12 | $110.69 | -$78.83 | 51% 647-634 (1281) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $82.22 | $83.51 | +$1.29 | 59% 1800-1250 (3050) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $33.39 | $33.39 | -$11.13 | 55% 410-331 (741) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $50.94 | $14.24 | +$0.05 | 57% 13705-10482 (24187) |
IstarothInvested
$704.68
Value
$849.36
PnL
+$144.68
Record
20%
312-1272 (1584)
Invested
$168.12
Value
$110.69
PnL
-$78.83
Record
51%
647-634 (1281)
Invested
$82.22
Value
$83.51
PnL
+$1.29
Record
59%
1800-1250 (3050)
Invested
$33.39
Value
$33.39
PnL
-$11.13
Record
55%
410-331 (741)
Invested
$50.94
Value
$14.24
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
13705-10482 (24187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.