Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$60.41
43.3¢ → 48.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$64.54 | 50% 1806-1787 (3593) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 49.7¢ | $506.9 | $493.65 | +$5.12 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.7¢ | $281.95 | $295.22 | +$13.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $206.55 | $198.42 | -$8.4 | |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $195.03 | $206.13 | +$11.11 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $87.69 | $72.13 | -$15.56 | 55% 394-317 (711) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $5.51 | $5.83 | +$0.32 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Invested
$1,135.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$64.54
Record
50%
1806-1787 (3593)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$506.9
Value
$493.65
PnL
+$5.12
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
Both legs:
Invested
$195.03
Value
$206.13
PnL
+$11.11
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
Invested
$87.69
Value
$72.13
PnL
-$15.56
Record
55%
394-317 (711)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.