Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 43¢ · $800 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$800.29
-$10.59
51.7¢ → 42.5¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $750.3 | $393.91 | +$21.54 | 50% 1771-1748 (3519) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $286.14 | $262.99 | -$23.15 | 59% 1738-1204 (2942) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.7¢ | $84.24 | $81.76 | -$10.65 | 56% 368-292 (660) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $55.05 | $49.92 | -$2.79 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $30.2 | $28.6 | -$2.06 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.4¢ | $22.05 | $21.32 | -$0.73 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $13.15 | $8.92 | +$1.68 | 53% 6477-5678 (12155) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 41.1¢ | $2.79 | $2.79 | -$0.01 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
Invested
$750.3
Value
$393.91
PnL
+$21.54
Record
50%
1771-1748 (3519)
Invested
$286.14
Value
$262.99
PnL
-$23.15
Record
59%
1738-1204 (2942)
Invested
$84.24
Value
$81.76
PnL
-$10.65
Record
56%
368-292 (660)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$55.05
Value
$49.92
PnL
-$2.79
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.15
Value
$8.92
PnL
+$1.68
Record
53%
6477-5678 (12155)
Invested
$2.79
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.