Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 30?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.0K
-$1.39
65.5¢ → 68.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 64.9¢ | $470.93 | $454.19 | -$10.26 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $395.25 | $402.5 | +$7.24 | 50% 1684-1666 (3350) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $72.92 | $76.27 | +$3.35 | 61% 20749-13168 (33917) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $66.62 | $63.21 | -$3.41 | 62% 1434-878 (2312) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $20.12 | $15.98 | +$1.4 | 57% 13241-10089 (23330) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $7.46 | $7.74 | +$0.29 | 53% 6367-5579 (11946) |
IstarothInvested
$470.93
Value
$454.19
PnL
-$10.26
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
Invested
$395.25
Value
$402.5
PnL
+$7.24
Record
50%
1684-1666 (3350)
balthazar<$100Invested
$72.92
Value
$76.27
PnL
+$3.35
Record
61%
20749-13168 (33917)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$66.62
Value
$63.21
PnL
-$3.41
Record
62%
1434-878 (2312)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$15.98
PnL
+$1.4
Record
57%
13241-10089 (23330)
Invested
$7.46
Value
$7.74
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
6367-5579 (11946)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.