Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 35¢ · $851 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$851.29
-$36.55
39.8¢ → 34.5¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $431.77 | $651.14 | +$219.37 | 47% 615-700 (1315) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $283.62 | $459.52 | +$218.69 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.8¢ | $190.94 | $191.62 | +$0.69 | |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $134.82 | $108.8 | -$26.02 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $81.59 | $73.57 | -$8.02 | 50% 1704-1692 (3396) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $13.36 | $14.21 | +$1.03 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $8.34 | $3.57 | -$3.54 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
Invested
$431.77
Value
$651.14
PnL
+$219.37
Record
47%
615-700 (1315)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.82
Value
$108.8
PnL
-$26.02
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Invested
$81.59
Value
$73.57
PnL
-$8.02
Record
50%
1704-1692 (3396)
Invested
$13.36
Value
$14.21
PnL
+$1.03
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$8.34
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$3.54
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.