Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 24¢ · $670 held · ends Oct 28

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$669.61

Combined PnL

$95.01

Smart Money Entry

23.1¢ → 23.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$514.59

Total Shares1,952

Combined PnL+$97.04

No1 trader

Total Value$32.46

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$2.03

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$323.42	$369.4	+$71.26	46% 576-664 (1240)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$116.51	$142.6	+$26.08	54% 247-213 (460)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$114.89	$122.56	+$7.67	61% 1571-1019 (2590)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.7¢	$51.6	$61.88	+$11.47
└ No leg	Noavg 78.6¢	$64.48	$60.68	-$3.8
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$34.49	$32.46	-$2.03	57% 13017-9926 (22943)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.9	$2.6	-$0.3	53% 6290-5520 (11810)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$323.42

Value

$369.4

PnL

+$71.26

Record

46%

576-664 (1240)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.51

Value

$142.6

PnL

+$26.08

Record

54%

247-213 (460)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$114.89

Value

$122.56

PnL

+$7.67

Record

61%

1571-1019 (2590)

Both legs:

Yes$51.621.7¢+$11.47

No$64.4878.6¢-$3.8

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.49

Value

$32.46

PnL

-$2.03

Record

57%

13017-9926 (22943)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

6290-5520 (11810)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.